Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.065503 0.075267 0.086312 0.099796 0.115899 0.134621 0.158192
2025-11-09 0.048138 0.059174 0.072730 0.090804 0.114571 0.145184 0.188301
2025-11-16 0.038864 0.050658 0.066236 0.088735 0.121106 0.167135 0.239677
2025-11-23 0.031907 0.043798 0.060557 0.086606 0.127406 0.191277 0.304060
2025-11-30 0.027132 0.039072 0.056958 0.086786 0.137588 0.225299 0.399963
2025-12-07 0.023275 0.035003 0.053577 0.086667 0.147745 0.263933 0.525836
2025-12-14 0.019677 0.030713 0.049057 0.083702 0.152487 0.295740 0.659972
2025-12-21 0.016103 0.025880 0.042763 0.076187 0.146652 0.305063 0.752654
2025-12-28 0.014217 0.023607 0.040539 0.075919 0.155937 0.353146 0.988853
2026-01-04 0.012866 0.022062 0.039367 0.077551 0.170407 0.422736 1.364405
2026-01-11 0.011576 0.020422 0.037719 0.077825 0.182157 0.493469 1.839229
2026-01-18 0.010457 0.018938 0.036119 0.077861 0.193718 0.572948 2.482506
2026-01-25 0.009295 0.017225 0.033806 0.075820 0.199579 0.641668 3.230964
2026-02-01 0.008165 0.015421 0.030994 0.071870 0.198550 0.687043 3.973124
2026-02-08 0.007496 0.014486 0.029969 0.072411 0.212568 0.808847 5.646196
2026-02-15 0.006882 0.013582 0.028862 0.072478 0.225501 0.942508 8.013656
2026-02-22 0.006426 0.012959 0.028320 0.074089 0.245486 1.139589 12.258833
2026-03-01 0.005995 0.012335 0.027666 0.075219 0.264762 1.364221 18.862303
2026-03-08 0.005496 0.011484 0.026290 0.073703 0.272458 1.531834 26.515105
2026-03-15 0.004880 0.010288 0.023828 0.067982 0.258549 1.530717 30.481015
2026-03-22 0.004573 0.009798 0.023187 0.068356 0.274340 1.795427 47.701585
2026-03-29 0.004353 0.009491 0.022998 0.070311 0.299910 2.207302 84.848047
2026-04-05 0.004108 0.009095 0.022491 0.070985 0.319661 2.621687 146.791936